The mixed bag of price fluctuations seen at the end of 2024 continued into the first three months of 2025. Polyethylene led the way in price increases as both HDPE and LDPE prices increased by 3% and 4% respectively vs. Q4 2024, taking them to levels not seen since early 2023. Conversely, 60 gsm on-side coated paper and 12-micron PET saw declines of -3% and -2% respectively vs. Q4 2024. Alufoil (7 micron) continued its upward trend, with a 3% increase, while BOPA film (15-micron) gained a modest 2% and BOPP (20-micron) was stable, according to figures from Flexible Packaging Europe (FPE).
Senior Research Analyst Santiago Castro of Wood Mackenzie added some context to these figures: “The prices paid in Europe for flexible packaging materials varied in Q1 2025 were driven by price fluctuations in raw materials, logistics issues and factors in overseas markets. The BOPET price reductions were largely due to declines in raw materials. While the reduction in paper prices is accounted for by under-utilised mill capacity and lower-than-expected energy prices. Higher raw material prices account for Alufoil and BOPA increases. BOPP prices remained relatively unchanged because of continued weak demand and over-supply. Overall demand for flexible packaging remained weak in Q1, driven by reduced consumer spending and a shift towards leaner inventory management. Prices are expected to increase for all substrates, largely due to increased raw materials costs, next quarter.”
Sharp increase in PE prices
Kaushik Mitra, Chemical Market Analyst on LDPE and HDPE continued, “The first quarter sharp increase in PE prices is due to raw material cost inflation and tighter inventory balances due to lower imports. The import figures were affected by low order booking and supply chain bottlenecks. PE demand is still lacklustre due to macroeconomic factors and continuing market uncertainty, although some sectors like construction, consumer products and packaging are showing signs of stability. Potential EU tariffs on PE from 12th April caused market volatility and nervousness as, even though there is huge supply capacity in the world, the European market may get impacted in the short term by these measures, before normalising later in the year.”
Adding his perspective on the figures Guido Aufdenkamp of FPE said: “While raw material supply and logistics issues continue to weigh on flexible packaging markets, there are signs that after the weak 2023 and recovery in 2024 the overall demand continues to increase slightly. While the geopolitical and trade developments cause continued uncertainties in both supply and demand, the industry is cautiously optimistic for the rest of 2025.”